There has been a notable and quantifiable drop in how Americans view President Donald Trump.
I’m not speaking of any decline in his mental faculties. Numerous people have remarked on his meandering speeches and press interactions, as well as his tendency to doze off during discussions. However, I lack the expertise to evaluate the validity of claims regarding mental deterioration.
I'm not even addressing the visible signs of physical decline. The enigma surrounding an MRI has yet to be clarified. Swollen ankles, discolored hands, and other indicators might hold significance, but there is insufficient data to reach a definitive conclusion from afar.
What I am highlighting is the undeniable decline in voter backing for Trump at this early stage in his second term.
The preliminary election outcomes clearly indicate a serious issue for the Republican Party.
In the latest series of elections, it was not only the decisive wins for Democratic candidates in major races such as the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, along with the mayoralty of New York City, but also an astonishing number of victories in school board elections and various other less prominent positions nationwide.
Nevertheless, the most telling and quantifiable insights regarding future outlooks can be discovered through the examination of overall voter approval ratings and in key policy domains.
The polling figures are poor for Trump.
The trend should raise even greater concern for his supporters.
Since July, Trump's overall approval rating, as reflected in the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls, has remained in negative numbers. Currently, it is at -13.1 percent.
The troubling trend for him tells a story of ongoing decline, going from -3.3 percent on July 7 to -6 percent on August 16, dropping to -6.1 percent on September 12, and reaching -13.1 percent by November 23.
This decline is visible in some politically critical policy areas. While it is not uniform, as one might expect, it reflects noticeable negative shifts in several significant and sensitive policy domains.
The most striking figures appear in evaluations of Trump’s management of inflation. This is crucial, as inflation is considered one of the most powerful issues influencing elections in many Western nations, including in Trump’s anticipated victory in 2024.
In July, voters evaluated Trump's management of inflation negatively by over 19 percent. This evaluation was already poor but has worsened since then. By November, the negative assessment surpassed 25 percent.
Despite repeated efforts to reverse the trend by claiming prices were decreasing, the recent withdrawal of tariffs on food in response to price concerns suggests substantial worry within the administration about consumer pricing.
The crucial importance of the tariff reductions lies in the fact that they clearly demonstrate that Trump's claim stating tariffs won't raise prices because they will be absorbed by foreign suppliers is entirely false. Although the average voter might overlook this, it represents a significant retreat for the President.
A similar trend of declining approval can be observed in economic policy, general foreign relations, and particularly in the management of the Russia-Ukraine situation, especially considering that these statistics came before the latest "peace initiative. "
It's worth mentioning that the highly contentious topic of immigration, which played a key role in Trump’s campaign for the 2024 election and is a major aspect of his administration's public image, also shows a drop in approval ratings.
Nonetheless, the decrease is more modest, shifting from -2 percent to -3.7 percent, and the overall figures are far less negative compared to many other areas.
There are two areas of policy that diverge from this overall trend.
Firstly, Trump's approach to crime shows a similar decline in approval observed in other domains, yet his net approval rating in November remained at zero, rather than dipping below.
The single area where Trump’s approval ratings have significantly risen is in his management of the Israel-Hamas situation.
Between July and September, his approval rating plummeted from -7.4 percent to -13.4 percent. However, by November 23, his approval regarding this matter had increased to +2.8 percent.
It is evident that this improvement regarding the Middle East has not been adequate to counterbalance the multiple reasons contributing to a substantial overall dip in support.
What does this notable decrease imply?
To begin with, it indicates that the Democrats are likely to have a strong opportunity to take control of the House of Representatives next November, and they have a slim chance of gaining control of to Senate as well.
I do not regard the attempts at gerrymandering as particularly credible. I believe there is a genuine possibility that these efforts may ultimately backfire.
Secondly, the decline and its potential impact on the electoral landscape in 2026 could lead to further erosion of the MAGA movement.
Lastly, this trend indicates that Trump is unlikely to secure a third term. I am sure that if he thought he had a chance, he would try to create a narrative justifying a bid for a third term.
While I have heard Steve Bannon confidently insist that Trump ’28 will definitely occur, I am skeptical about its likelihood. Unless the Democrats perform exceptionally poorly in the House in 2026 or make a mistake when choosing a presidential candidate, I doubt Trump would win if he ran in 2028.
This presents a faint glimmer of hope at the end of a prolonged, dark period.
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