As the year wraps up, things usually become more relaxed and emotions often heighten.
It’s common for commentators and reporters to get messages from the political figures they analyze or critique; however, this tends to increase as the parliamentary session concludes.
While the year's end signifies merely a change in the calendar, the notion of mentally closing out a chapter, even if events are ongoing, seems appealing to politicians. This period also tends to lead to more personal reactions than usual, which might apply to all of us.
In particular, I found it rather entertaining to receive two messages nearly at the same moment from representatives of both Labor and Liberal expressing confusion over why I was perceived as “harsh” towards their political stance.
These messages coincided with Carly Simon's song You're so vain playing in my ears (my musical taste resembles that of a baby boomer who once resided in a van, evaded the draft, and meandered through Woodstock before settling in Laurel Canyon), adding to the amusement of the moment. Yes, you likely DO think this piece is about you.
It reflects something significant about Australia's political landscape when both major parties feel besieged. As always, one must remember – think about how their voters must feel.
The Liberals appear adrift and unlikely to navigate out of their current predicament anytime soon, if ever. Yet, their ideologies linger.
In its pursuit of becoming the "natural ruling party" (whatever that truly entails), Labor has occupied the policy space typically reserved for Liberal Party ideas. Recent instances involve questions such as: what if we transformed work and society using new tech without any regulations? What if environmental legislation facilitated the approval of mining activities? What if we established donation laws that excluded independents and smaller parties from electoral funding? What if we invested billions into a precarious defense agreement while undermining the social contract by reducing NDIS funding?
Labor has the autonomy to act as it wishes – and evidently, its current desire is to emulate the Liberal Party from the 1990s.
Nevertheless, this doesn’t imply that all hope is lost.
The leadership of Labor may be striving to adhere to the moderate, gradual approach that Anthony Albanese established in 2019, but that does not imply unanimous support from everyone.
This is evident in various deviations from the norm. Ed Husic was among the most vocal advocates urging Labor to revise its gas policy, but he had company in this sentiment.
There’s an observable discontent among voters that MPs, who engage closely with their constituents, must intentionally overlook to not recognize. Over recent months, an increasing number of stakeholders have described their interactions with the government and its senior officials as "arrogant. " There's a sense of pride emerging—which is common during a second term when one has a greater mandate (especially a substantial one)—but when it starts to resonate with stakeholders, it typically indicates that a public backlash could be imminent.
At a recent gathering, when I discussed this escalating perception of arrogance, three lobbyists approached me later to express that they had personally noticed this change. This has raised concerns among some within the government who have not been completely influenced by the prevailing narrative. But does this concern translate into a desire for change?
Paul Sakkal recently reported in the Sydney Morning Herald that Labor is considering proceeding with an east coast gas reservation, a development occurring just six months after Peter Dutton attempted to utilize the issue in a desperate electoral maneuver. This indicates that leadership can be influenced if enough public pressure is applied
Ultimately, what typically drives politicians is fear. Fear that they might lose their electorates, their positions, their future prospects, coupled with insufficient time to alter public perception.
Fears, or at least worries, are escalating among Labor members. It’s not that they will be ousted from power – statistically, the chances of the Coalition winning the upcoming election are as slim as my being cast as the next Bond girl – but they may lose more seats than they initially thought.
Around 18 anxious backbenchers have come to appreciate their roles. Spending summer within their constituencies, listening directly to their supporters instead of just what party leaders are relaying, should at least make them think twice.
If Labor intends to implement necessary actions, next year is their only option. The following year will plunge them back into election campaign mode, a time when reforms often prioritize the short-term and lack vision.
Although a gas reservation might seem like a minor step, it won't suffice to regain the support of those who feel let down – and even worse, the ones who have become disenchanted. When both parties operate within the same framework, fear-based campaigns that criticize the government lose their effectiveness.
Responding to actual needs, rather than how the government perceives them, doesn’t necessarily have to be an impossible task. As the year draws to a close and the intensity of parliamentary sessions begins to lessen, one must ponder how many government members are starting to sense the shifting tides.
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